Looking for Elite EDGE 3-4 OLBs in the 2016 NFL Draft

Elite 3-4 defense EDGE OLBs are phenomenal athletes that need to bend, juke and power their way to get to the quarterback but also need to hold the edge against the run and sometimes drop into pass coverage. There are a lot of equations that try to come up with formulas from physical test results for predicting elite pass rushers such as SackSEER, Waldo’s formula and SPARQ.  Instead of using a complicated formula, listed below are three elite NFL EDGE 3-4 OLBs college testing results, which are very similar, to use as high-ceiling benchmarks (Von Miller, Demarcus Ware, Khalil Mack.)  Using their numbers for comparison we highlight in GREEN any prospects that show elite traits and then RED flag any place where a prospect does not stack up.  Finally we will add game analysis and other information to help form an evaluation of the prospects.

3-4 OLB Chart Descriptions/Benchmarks:

Height/Weight: 6.2” to 6.5” 240 lbs. - most teams favor length but if a prospect is 6.5”, it is also a red flag if his weight and bench press are both low which shows a lack of power.  Although length is preferred, pass rushers come in all shapes and sizes such as James Harrison who is 5.11”.

Arms: less than 32 1/2”, elite 34” – arm length is very important to engage offensive lineman; lower is a red flag.  Elite example: Aldon Smith measured 36” arms.

40-yard-dash: higher than 4.70, elite 4.59 – measures straight line speed; there is a direct correlation between elite 40 times and great sack production, however, a slower 40 time doesn’t necessarily mean low sack production especially with taller prospects. Elite example: Dwight Freeney ran a 4.4 forty at 268 lbs.

10 yd split:  higher than 1.68 , elite 1.59 – measures initial burst off the snap, first step and getting up to speed quickly. Elite example: Clay Mathews ran a 1.49.

Short Shuttle: higher than 4.42, elite 4.20 – measures short area and lateral quickness, burst and hip flexibility. Good to see if an OLB can bend and beat OT with speed.  NO elite edge rusher has emerged from the draft since at least 1999 with a shuttle slower than 4.42. (*Football Outsiders.) Elite example: Bruce Irvin ran the shuttle in 4.03 seconds.

3-cone:  higher than 7.10, elite 6.85 – agility, flexibility and change of direction.  For 3-4 OLB, some say this is the most important drill since it simulates running the arc.  Elite example: Demarcus Ware had a 6.83.

Vertical: lower than 34”, elite 37” - Lower body explosion and power.  OT Joe Thomas had a 33” vertical so OLBs should at least have a 34”.  Elite example: Cameron Wake had a 45” vert.

Broad Jump: - lower than 10.0 ft., elite 10.5” - lower body explosion and strength.  Elite example: Brian Orakpo had a 10.10” broad jump.

Bench press (reps): lower than 20, elite 27 – measures strength, not as important except for a bull rush and it does factor in a lot more against the run game because a 3-4 OLB needs to hold up the edge.  Elite example: Justin Houston had 30 reps on the bench.

Sacks (final college season): less than 10 sacks, elite 15 – ideally you want a high sack total but there could be circumstances such as injury, scheme or position switch that lower the total.  Level of competition and how the sacks were made also are factors. Elite example: Terrell Suggs had 24 sacks in one season at Arizona St. against good competition.

Analysis: Last and most important is looking at the game tape and seeing if the physical skills translate to the field.  Also checking character or any other issues that could be involved.

NFL Elite 3-4 OLBs college results

	Hght	Wght	Arms	40 yd	10 yd	Shuttle	3cone	Vert	Broad	Reps	Sack
Von Miller	6.3”	246	33 ½”	4.53	1.57	4.06	6.7	37”	10.6”	21	10*
Demarcus Ware	6.4”	262	34”	4.56	1.62	4.07	6.83	38 ½”	10.7”	27	10.5
Khalil Mack	6.3”	251	33 ¼”	4.55	1.53	4.18	7.08	40”	10.8”	23	10.5

*sack production note: Von Miller had a high ankle sprain for first 6 games of his final year but had 17 sacks the year before.

2016 NFL DRAFT DAY 1 & 2 -  3-4 OLBs  (rounds 1 through 3) order by predicted draft position

	Hght	Wght	Arms	40 yd	10 yd	Shuttle	3cone	Vert	Broad	Reps	Sack
Joey  Bosa	6.5”	269	33 3/8”	4.86	1.69	4.21	6.89	32”	10.0”	24	5*
Shaq Lawson	6.3”	269	32 3/4”	4.70	1.66	4.21	7.26	33”	10.0”	inj*	12.5
Leonard Floyd	6.5”	244	33 1/8”	4.60	1.60	4.32	7.18	39.5”	10.7”	!!!	4.5
Noah Spence	6.2”	251	33”	4.80	1.62	4.35	7.21	35”	10.1”	25	11.5
Kamalei Correa	6.3”	243	31 5/8”	4.69	1.63	4.25	6.96	34”	9.9”	21	6*
Shilique Calhoun	6.4”	251	34 ¼”	4.82	1.69	4.25	6.97	35”	9.7”	23	10.5
Kyler Fackrell	6.5”	245	33 ¼”	4.72	1.62	4.33	7.34	34 ½”	10.1”	16	4
Jordan Jenkins	6.3”	259	34 ¼”	4.80	1.64	4.32	7.39	36.5”	10.3”	19	4
Yannick Ngakoue	6.2”	252	32 ½”	4.75	1.65	4.50	7.35	34.5”	9.10”	26	13.5

 

Joey Bosa, Ohio St. – bigger and his best fit is probably a 4-3 DE; his forty time, 10 yd. and vert. show lack of elite explosion for an elite 3-4 OLB.  From the games you can see his violent hands and tenacious drive are his best pass rushing tools. Bosa usually lined up against the less talented right tackle and has had his share of penalties.  He is a relentless player with instincts and an exceptional motor. *He only had 5 sacks in 2015, but had 13.5 sacks the year before and in 2015 his QB hurries increased to 14.

Shaq Lawson, Clemson – forty time, vert. and 3cone are all just average for edge rushers.  Had a shoulder injury so he didn’t do the bench press but the tape shows a powerful athlete. He is good against the run and is very aggressive but doesn’t demonstrate elite pass rushing skills.  He has a high motor and never stops.  Led the NCAA in tackles for a loss and has a habit of coming up with the big play.  Also, probably best as a 4-3 DE.

	Hght	Wght	Arms	40 yd	10 yd	Shuttle	3cone	Vert	Broad	Reps	Sack
Leonard Floyd	6.5”	244	33 1/8”	4.60	1.60	4.32	7.18	39.5”	10.7”	!!!	4.5
Barkevious Mingo	6.4”	241	33 ¾”	4.58	1.62	4.39	6.83	38 ½”	10.7”	!!!	4.5

Leonard Floyd, Georgia –Floyd has very good tests minus power and sack production which is exactly like Mingo out of college.  Both of these players refused to do the bench press and had only 4.5 sacks. Tall, lanky athletes that lack power have not succeeded.  Floyd was asked to drop into coverage a lot and is very quick with a high motor but can be pushed around.  Also, note that Floyd will be 24 years old this season.  (Mingo has worked very hard in the offseason to add power and may still turn into a good pass rusher; Floyd would need to do the same.)

Noah Spence, E. Kentucky – his forty, shuttle and 3-cone show he is not an elite twitch athlete but overall a good one.  It should be noted he said he did the drills with a strained hamstring.  His play speed is above average and seems closer to his very good 1.62 10 yd. split rather than his 4.8 forty. Has a great initial burst and high motor but you also have to consider the character issues even if they seem like they are behind him now. 

Kamalei Correa, Boise St. – those short arms are a red flag and his vert. and his forty time and broad jump show lack of elite explosion. His 10 yd., 3cone and shuttle show great agility and quickness. The tape shows a possible problem holding the edge as far as strength.  He has very quick hands and moves but if a lineman does latch on, he can be pushed out of the play.  He also has a high motor, pass coverage experience and has lined up all over the field.  *Only 6 sacks in 2015 but had 12 in 2014.

Shilique Calhoun, Michigan St.  – lacking elite status in the forty and broad jump but overall a good mix of length (arms, height) and athleticism (bench, shuttle, vert.)  His tape doesn’t show a violent pass rusher but overall a solid one.  He can dip and bend well but he may not have as high a motor as the prospects above him. Calhoun had a whopping 128 QB hurries in his college career but needs to become more aggressive and powerful.  Lined up on the left and right side but wasn’t asked to drop into coverage.  Shilique just turned 24 years old.

Kyler Fackrell, Utah St. – he is another tall, somewhat lanky athlete lacking power (bench) but has the length teams covet.  He can bend but doesn’t have good change of direction. Fackrell also has played in the 3-4 as an OLB and was asked to drop back into coverage a lot and play many different roles.  His sack production might be lower since he was asked to play so many different positions and cover.  Was out 2014 with an ACL tear.  He won’t be an elite pass rusher but could be a very solid 3-4 OLB.  He is also 24 years old.

Jordan Jenkins, Georgia – he is too stiff (3cone) to be a dangerous pass rusher, but has great length (good size with long arms) and enough burst and explosion to play the position.  The tape shows he can hold the edge and is solid against the run but doesn’t offer a lot of pass rush, quickness or speed, just a solid player. He is 24 years old.

Yannick Ngakoue, Maryland – stocky build with not a lot of length (arms just long enough.)  He is not an elite twitchy athlete (forty, 3cone, broad and a very bad shuttle) but the game tape does show he is slippery.  Has some pass rush potential but is a liability versus the run and may struggle vs. NFL tackles like he did vs. Ohio St.

* didn’t include Emmanuel Ogbah OKL. St. because the tape shows he is too stiff (4.50 shuttle) and is probably best suited for 4-3 DE at 273 lbs.

NFL Elite 3-4 OLBs college results

	Hght	Wght	Arms	40 yd	10 yd	Shuttle	3cone	Vert	Broad	Reps	Sack
Von Miller	6.3”	246	33 ½”	4.53	1.57	4.06	6.7	37”	10.6”	21	10*
Demarcus Ware	6.4”	262	34”	4.56	1.62	4.07	6.83	38 ½”	10.7”	27	10.5
Khalil Mack	6.3”	251	33 ¼”	4.55	1.53	4.18	7.08	40”	10.8”	23	10.5

*sack production note: Von Miller had a high ankle sprain for first 6 games of his final year but had 17 sacks the year before.

DAY 3 (rounds 4 through 7) order by predicted draft positon

	Hght	Wght	Arms	40 yd	10 yd	Shuttle	3cone	Vert	Broad	Reps	Sack
Matt Judon	6.3”	275	33 7/8”	4.73	1.66	4.52	6.89	35”	9.1”	30	20
James Cowser	6.3”	248	32 7/8”	4.82	1.68	4.31	6.80	34”	9.8”	24	13
Stephen Weatherly	6.4”	267	34 1/2”	4.61	1.59	4.42	7.07	31”	9.9”	23	3.5
Aaron Wallace	6.3”	243	32”	4.57	1.58	4.27	6.96	36”	10.10”	25	7*
Dadi Nicolas	6.3”	235	343/4”	4.74	1.70	4.38	7.04	41”	9.8”	14	2.5*
Tyrone Holmes	6.2”	253	32”	4.58	1.65	4.30	7.00	37 ½”	9.5”	28	18
Victor Ochi	6.1”	246	33 3/4”	4.80	1.68	4.40	7.24	32”	9.11”	22	13
Alex McCallister	6.6”	239	36”	4.75	1.65	4.00	7.01	34.5”	10.8”	inj.!	6.5*

 

Matt Judon, Grand Valley St. – His shuttle time is a big red flag but he has good size, power and high production. The tape shows a very raw athlete beating low level competition as a defensive end.  Might be best used as a 4-3 DE.  Great sack production against lower level competition.

James Cowser, Southern Utah – His broad and forty time shows he lacks elite explosion but he very quick (very fast 3cone and a good shuttle time.)  The tape shows a super try hard player (43 career sacks) that will give you his all.  Has some pass rush moves, may not be elite but could offer some help. He did a two year Mormom church mission so he is older.

Stephen Weatherly, Vanderbilt – Weatherly has great length, size and a very good forty time but 3.5 sacks is a big red flag.  Usually when a player has a great forty time and 10 yd split they also have very good vertical and broad jump, but he doesn’t.  Weatherly plays 3-4 OLB and sometimes drops into coverage so he has some experience.  The tape shows straight line speed but questionable agility.  He hesitates a lot, maybe because of scheme, but he is very raw.

Aaron Wallace, UCLA – *low sack production is because he never started until his senior year after Myles Jack got injured (started just 8 games).  Played as a 3-4 pass rusher.  His father played for the Raiders.  Had several sacks versus Cal and you can see how athletic he is but with so little playing time he is a raw prospect that needs work.

Dadi Nicolas, Virginia Tech - *low sack production but was misused as a thin defensive end.  He had 9 sacks as a rush linebacker in 2014.  Outstanding vertical but Nicolas lacks power and is too lanky.  It would take him some time to add weight and strength but he does have some pass rush ability.

Tyrone Holmes, Montana – great physical tests other than short arms.  He had 18 sacks against low level competition.  He is raw but was the FCS defensive player of the year over Cowser, Ochi and Noah Spence.  Nice strip sack of Wentz in the NDSU game.  Never has played in the 3-4 and would need time to develop.

Victor Ochi, Stonybrook – a little short at 6.1” but has very long arms for that size. He outplays his physical tests by being very relentless and active.  The tape shows a very aggressive player with a fast first step.  He often tries to anticipate the snap count which can lead to sacks or penalties.

Alex McCallister, Florida – a 4.0 short shuttle with 36” arms is impressive!  Even without him doing the bench press you know he lacks power.  Has speed off the edge and a wild dip and bend move that is very athletic.  He has pass rush ability but a team would have to be patient with his development. Also, note Alex McCalister is 23 years old and has some character concerns.

Summary:

The 2016 NFL Draft seems to lack elite pass rushers at the top but have a common theme of players with very high motors.  Leonard Floyd is the only prospect in that group that has a lot of elite traits and has also dropped into coverage with success, but the low sack production, strength and eerily similar Barkevious Mingo comparison should concern teams. He might also be a liability versus the run.  He’s a high risk pick.  Joey Bosa and Shaq Lawson both are bigger, relentless players with high motors and great instincts but neither are elite pass rushers just good ones. They would probably do better in a 4-3 scheme or at least it would be best to not have them drop into coverage although they both have on occasion. They should be very solid players but it is doubtful they turn into elite pass rushers.  Noah Spence has a great first step and initial burst with quick hands and might be the best pure pass rusher of all of them.  Spence though lacks elite physical traits and has almost no experience in the 3-4 or dropping into coverage. He could have a problem against the run but does have a high motor and will work hard if a team is okay with his previous character blemishes.  Kamalei Correa is a high motor player with very fast hands and quickness.  Correa can be a very good pass rusher and a 3-4 OLB, but will need to work hard to set the edge and be strong against the run. It is a big bonus he has pass coverage experience.  Shilique Calhoun is a solid player with good traits and some pass rush skill but might have a problem transitioning to the 3-4.  He isn’t as aggressive and doesn’t have as high a motor as the players listed above and that is why they will probably be selected before him.  Good coaching could turn him into a good 3-4 OLB. 

From the charts above there is actually more GREEN physical elite traits in the later round prospects than early round players and shows greater value if you can develop them.  There might be a few gems that could be developed into good 3-4 OLBs.  Besides Floyd, Aaron Wallace from UCLA might be the most athletic overall prospect.  He has only started a total of 8 games in his career, but represents a good value player to try and develop as far as analytics.  Tyrone Holmes from Montana also has very good physical tools and had 18 sacks versus lower level competition.  He would need time to learn the 3-4 and adjust to the speed of the game. Victor Ochi and James Cowser may lack some physical traits but both were productive and play like their hair is on fire.  Alex McCallister may lack power but a team is going to fall in love with his length (long 36” arms), his unbelievable shuttle and broad and will want the chance to develop him.  If a team feels Floyd is too risky in the 1^st they may want to develop McCallister who has similar traits later.